Bitcoin ETF giao ngay: Đây là thước đo đáng ngạc nhiên để thúc đẩy BTC vượt qua ngưỡng 40.000 USD.

David Lawant, Head of Research at FalconX, a cryptocurrency trading platform designed specifically for institutional organizations, recently made a insightful prediction about the future price of Bitcoin (BTC) ahead of the expected launch of a Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Sharing his speculation through X (formerly known as Twitter), he outlined the financial variables that could play a decisive role. Lawant remarked, “The next important variable to watch in the launch of BTC ETFs will be the amount of AUM these instruments will gather once they launch. I think the market is currently expecting this capital flow to be between $500 million and $1.5 billion.” This magical number pushed the price of Bitcoin beyond $40,000. The cryptocurrency community is eagerly awaiting a positive nod for the Spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023 or early 2024. One important date on the calendar is January 10, 2024, considered the ultimate deadline for the ARK/21 Shared Application, leading the current batch of applications. There is no doubt that the green signal from regulatory agencies for spot ETFs will change the game for the entire class of digital assets. Lawant emphasizes the importance of this development, saying, “It will open up opportunities for large pools of capital that are currently not able to correctly access cryptocurrencies, such as financial advisors, and it will bring the seal of approval from the world’s most renowned market regulatory agencies.” However, the urgent question is the immediate impact on capital inflows. Lawant states, “The first few weeks after launch will be crucial to assessing the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies at this present time within relatively untapped capital groups.” Based on historical data, Lawant has highlighted the stability of sellers’ positions in the BTC order book, particularly at prices above $30,000. This data allows for a rough estimate of the impact of capital flows on the price trajectory of BTC. Through different scenarios of incoming capital flows based on various levels of market scenarios, Lawant concludes that the market could anticipate net inflows ranging from $500 million to $1.5 billion in the first few weeks after launch. Bitcoin’s target price based on net inflows | Source: X @dlawant Drawing conclusions from his analysis, Lawant speculates: In order for BTC to establish a new range between the current level and over $40,000, the total net inflows will need to exceed $1.5 billion. On the other hand, if net inflows are below $500 million, we might return to the $30,000 level or even lower. However, it is important to note the capital assumptions made in Lawant’s analysis. He admits, “Moving from $28.5k to $34.0k is entirely due to the market’s prediction of insensitive net inflows into the price-sensitive ETF launch”. This means that, along with other reasons, the current price increase is not due to the correlation with gold, global crises, or bond market turmoil. Lawant also highlights the potential for price volatility in BTC order books. However, with the caliber of issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, and Ark Invest in the SEC queue, the current favorable macroeconomic environment for alternative currency assets and improved liquidity conditions in the future, Lawant remains optimistic about BTC price increase after the ETF launch. He concludes, “ceteris paribus, I remain quite excited about how BTC price could react to ETF launches”. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $34,542. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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