The global macro director at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, has recently provided insightful perspectives on the potential of the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and further labeled cryptocurrency tokens as “exponential gold”. In a tweet discussing the application of the Bitcoin Curve in a package released on his platform X (previously known as Twitter), Timmer mentioned that the scarcity and acceptance curve of Bitcoin could make it a “strong hedge against currency shenanigans”, implying that its token features make it an excellent option for inflation protection. That’s why he sees tokens as “exponential gold”.
He further explains the Bitcoin Acceptance Curve, stating that it has so far followed a “typical S-curve shape”, making it align with other significant advancements that have undergone a similar adoption journey. One of them being mobile phones, as Timmer notes that the Bitcoin Acceptance Curve in 2020 resembles the curve of mobile phones in the 80s and 90s.
However, Bitcoin seems to have transitioned into another phase in its acceptance curve, as Timmer claims that the “real rate story has gone from benign in 2020 to hawkish in 2022”. He also suggests that Bitcoin has passed its rapid growth phase as its acceptance curve has flattened. With this, Timmer believes that it now bears similarities to the internet acceptance curve in the 2000s, being a cryptocurrency token that “hasn’t made much progress since 2021.”
In another tweet, Timmer shares his perspective on the volatility of Bitcoin compared to other asset classes. First, he shares a risk-reward chart for the pandemic and post-pandemic periods from 2020 to the present. The SPX seems to provide the best risk-reward with an almost 24% return.
Timmer then proceeds to share another chart, this time including Bitcoin. The most prominent cryptocurrency stands out compared to the rest, as he mentions that Bitcoin is “in a different universe”, with a 58% return.
The high volatility of Bitcoin seems to have contributed to significant profits, as Timmer points out that the cryptocurrency’s significant price declines also come with significant gains. To emphasize his point, he shares another chart showing the price declines and recoveries that various asset classes have experienced from their highs and lows over a 2-year period.
The chart shows that Bitcoin experienced a 54% decline from its two-year high but also increased by 84% from its low during the same period. This is more impressive when compared to how other asset classes performed during the same timeframe, as Timmer states that government bonds “can’t hold a candle” to Bitcoin’s risk-reward play.
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